Jon Stewart suggests that Nate Silver, statistician, blogger at FiveThirtyEight and author of The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, should ask people to bow down to him and that he should call himself Lord and God of the Algorithm. Why?
In the 2008 US presidential election, Nate Silver correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. He also predicted the winner of all 35 U.S. Senate races that year. In the 2012 presidential election, he correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. His predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states.
- "Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves”.
- "We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.”
- "New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look”.
- "There are entire disciplines in which predictions have been failing, often at a great cost to society”.
- "While simplicity can be a virtue for a model, a model should at least be sophisticatedly simple”.
- "This is another of those Information-age risks: we share so much information that our independence is reduced”.
- "Some stone-age strengths have become information-age weaknesses".
- “Statistics is the science of finding relationships and actionable insights from data.”
- “We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.”
- “As the amount of information increases, the complexity of relationships between this information increases faster.”
- “The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.”
- “What makes data rich? Quantity, quality, variety. Rich data is more reliable than Big data.”
- “Know where you’re coming from – be alert to your blind spots and biases.”
- “If you don’t know where you are in the present, it’s hard to take quality steps toward the future.”
- “When you have culture, context and competition working in synergy, you can achieve great gains.”
- “If you’re betting on a correlation without a strong causal link, you’re going to get burned.”
- “As the statistician George E. P. Box wrote, “All models are wrong, but some models are useful.” What he meant by that is that all models are simplifications of the universe, as they must necessarily be. As another mathematician said, “The best model of a cat is a cat.”
- “What makes him successful is the way that he analyzes information. He is not just hunting for patterns.”